​$10000 in 333 days. A big flop

2016-05-10 02:05:47 Author: Oleg Smolerov (awd2) Rating: +4

The day that I feared most has finally come.


DFS brings huge stat variance, and when the bankroll chart is stubbornly climbing up, you realize the starts will take revenge soon. Only one weekend full of random and unpredictable results is enough to mess things up.

The biggest mistake most managers made this weekend (including me) was the blind faith in West Ham. Who can blame us? The attacking power the Hammers displayed in the latest matches was incredible, while Swansea were downed 4:0 by Leicester in the last away game. The Welsh side was forced to play without GylfiSigurdsson, the engine behind the team’s attacking action. Investing in Cresswell, Payet, Carroll, Noble or Lanzini looked like a clever and lucrative move at first, and some managers even made Payet or Carroll the side’s captains. So let’s analyze why the strategy flopped.

First of all we have to admit the Swans made a great performance against the Liverpool squad that was packed with reserve players. Swansea clearly stated they will fight this season to the last tie. Second point is West Ham’s playing style that works against top clubs, but fails to deliver against the opponents that play the second role. And the final aspect you should not underestimate in fantasy football is pure luck. In the game at Boleyn Ground Swansea capitalized on every moment they had, while West Ham had bad luck shooting on target 25 times and netting only once. Stephen Kingsleyscored an occasional own goal, Fabianski capitulated in that moment, but continued making great saves till the final whistle.

That game turned any stack assembled from the Hammers into an anchor that pulled down your fantasy team. Slaven Bilic’s best players are quite expensive, but my faith in the team destroyed any reasoning I had. This failure also affected other matches I played and as a result my bankroll lost its gains at different fronts.

I played a lot at FanTeam, but with no apparent victories. I lost most fantasy games on the Russian league, all heads-ups were a waste as well, and only the biggest one (€51.25 prize) I shared with the futt32.

I have not developed a clear plan on the Russian Premier League. I will probably take a few shots in the last three game days, and if the results are still that poor, my summer will be dedicated to some serious revision and analytics of the league.

My team for a two-day runs was lousy even without West Ham’s stack. Alexis Sanchez, Jermain Defoe and Jamaal Lascelles were my lucky bets this weekend, but the cheapest defender from Bournemouth and the attacking midfielderfrom Southampton were misfits in my team.

I was making a great progress at FantasyBet lately, but this weekend ended my strong run. Even the Flashes were a disaster for me, as I did not get into the BIG FLASH prize pool, lost THE BOSS badge, and only managed to return my buy-in at the GRAND WEEKEND. The standard weekend team for FantasyBet was very similar to the one I picked for FanTeam. The only exception was the fact that I did not have enough money to buy more expensive forwards like Costa or Vardy who propelled me to the GRAND WEEKEND prizes. I’d like to point out that I did not make many entries for the flashes, putting my confidence in the selections I had and not wishing to risk with one more buy-in.

Fanaments was a losing story as well. I lost in all tournaments with a guaranteed pay back. It was not my day, and it is even difficult to give clear analyses. I picked up West Hams stack, made terrible choices among the players with 4.5 rating, failed with Bournemouth and Jamie Vardy as the only hero in the side.

Fanaments is the place that never fails to create exciting games for me. I lost all the two-day campaigns with guarantees, but Sunday runs with no guarantees were my lucky games. I took the first prizes in all of them. With small buy-ins my profit was not impressive, but still making some cash after a depressing spell made me smile a bit.

Focus

The rule is simple. What you do after losing big? Keep the course and do not turn back. The midweek fantasy games will give me some chances to earn back what I lost, plus all the sites will offer huge guarantees for the upcoming EPL match day, so I have to prepare my strategies for that. I prefer to thinks that I play with stats variance, and the biggest starts will be more profitable for me.

Bankroll

After a massive strike I lost quite a bit. The upsetting bankroll charts are below. My total bankroll stands at 23% right now.

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