​$10000 in 333 days. 22 does not always mean a bust

2016-04-29 18:27:10 Author: Oleg Smolerov (awd2) Rating: +5

With 11 and an ace in your cards, you do now have many chances. Yet this midweek 22 was a lucky number.

My predictions about the first Champions League semi-finals did not quite work out. I expected a more open game from Manchester City, and I still do not understand the plan that the Citizens expect to pull off at Santiago Bernabeu. At home Real smashes opponents without any second thoughts, sometimes crashing the other side by a humiliating margin. City managed to finish his last two play-off matches without conceding a goal, but in the clash against Real this achievement was a waste. Previously Man City followed different strategies as the English side performed superbly in Kiev and aimed to keep their goal intact at home. In the fixture against PSG the Citizens earned a great advantage in a 2-2 shootout in Paris, so home game again turned in a play-safe mode. Now the English powerhouse faces a different task, coming to Spain with no advantage. City surprised with a defensive mindset in the first game, making no real attempts to score and escaping some dangerous moments at the end of the match.

The most predictable clean sheet maker in the semis was Atletico that shows a perfect run in the last quarter of the season. Bayern is the opposite with two unimpressive away matches in play-offs. I did not expect a superb performance from the Munich side at Vicente Calderon, and the Griezmann – Torres combo was obviously set to shine in the game. Torres was fully motivated to play at his best after sending off in the quarter-finals, while Griezmann always delivers. My thinking was close to bringing me some cash, but after Griezmann’s pass Torres hit a goalpost, and only this moment undermined my success in Wednesday fantasy games.

Oblak and Saul were the kings of the match. My backing of the first one was predictable, while Saul was a different story with different analyses from me. Some managers were choosing between Torres, Griezmann and Saul, and with the last one scoring in the game and taking the title of the best attacking fantasy player of the week, were simply happy with their decision. I totally disagree that the decision was right. I can actually explain my thoughts in a very simple way.

So, if we talk about one-day tournaments at FanTeam for 5 players, we should admit that the prices for Atletico players were quite fair and even low. Betting on the matrass makers was an easy move, as it gave you a lot of freedom to choose. If you pick a defensive stack, you have only one slot for an attacking player, and you decide between Griezmann, Torres and Saul. The first one is the most dynamic player in the team with the best stats, the second is in his peak form and has great mindset. Saul seemed the weakest one from statistical and playing points, but in this Champions League campaign he earned more result than ab=anyone expected. Saul was not an obvious choice for me in the pool, and in my preview I asked you to take Saul as a cheap player that adds to a great team, but does not anchors it.

Here are my examples when betting on Saul could bring benefit:

  • Atletico layers were pricey and after taking a goalkeeper and two defenders, you could not afford to pack Torres and Griezmann into the line-up. In this case Saul is the right and most promising choice from the midfielders.
  • You do not believe in a clean sheet at Vicente Calderon, and bet on three attacking players. As you face a tough decision with the prices coming to two scenarios: Lewandowski – Griezmann – Saul or Costa- Griezmann –Torres. Basically you do not decide whether you play with Saul or without him, but evaluate the combos Costa– Torres and Lewandowski – Saul. And you chose Saul because he comes with the Polish striker.

My idea is that any sacrifice in your attacking power should be justified, while intuition plays a little role in that.

Here ae some facts about my fantasy midweek. The fantasy action was a weird one as I only won the games with buy-ins €22.00 at FanTeamand £22.00 atFantasyBet, losing in other runs. My teams were not perfect, so the victories happened due to a small number players betting, while my decision were poor sometimes.

I played a lot at FanTeam and even finished in a positive, even though I did not put a single defensive stack. I already described my approach to collecting the teams for the first semis, so I just want toshare the list of the games I played and the teams I pulled together.

FantasyBet had only two tournaments that were worth the fight. I was victorious in a more expensive one. There were no difference in the teams, and Saul was the factor that brought me the result. I took the combo Torres – Saul in the cheaper bet, in the more expensive one I put Aguero –Saul in the squad.

Fanaments did not give any guarantees again, so the post I wrote before is still relevant.

Focus

I’ve made an important conclusion on the long-distancestrategy, and I want to share my ideas here. I’ve described my thoughts on the ways to pack the best team, and with most of them turning to be wrong, I still managed to end with a plus. Striving for a perfect play and winning in every tournament is great, but fantasy players have other goals in their minds. We need a consistent positive plus in the long run, and the tools we use for this is our personal choice. Some managers will risk in every game to win big, while others bet cautiously on average team. You shouldhave noticed that I have not recorded big victories in a while, but the benefit chart still reaches new heights.

Find your own style, experiment, look for the loopholes and shortcuts to pick a legendary team that will play your strategy.

Bankroll

We have a new achievement with 18,7% rise. Again, it is not the number that matters most, but the steady advance in the last four sessions. One more note is the rising share of FantasyBet, and the changes on this chart.

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